A general criticism of decision theory based on a fixed universe of possibilities is that it considers the "known unknowns", not the " unknown unknowns " [ citation needed ] : it focuses on expected variations, not on unforeseen events, which some argue (as in black swan theory ) have outsized impact and must be considered – significant events may be "outside model". This line of argument, called the ludic fallacy , is that there are inevitable imperfections in modeling the real world by particular models, and that unquestioning reliance on models blinds one to their limits.
Having realized he could make a living as a writer, Hesse finally married Maria Bernoulli (of the famous family of mathematicians  ) in 1904, while her father, who disapproved of their relationship, was away for the weekend. The couple settled down in Gaienhofen on Lake Constance , and began a family, eventually having three sons. In Gaienhofen, he wrote his second novel, Beneath the Wheel , which was published in 1906. In the following time, he composed primarily short stories and poems. His story "The Wolf," written in 1906–07, was "quite possibly" a foreshadowing of Steppenwolf .